San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends

Market Conditions, Trends & Home Prices in San Francisco

A Selection of Monthly Reports


Updated Home Value Charts - December 10, 2017

Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot Values 

San Francisco Home Values - Median Home Price Trends

San Francisco Home Values - Average Dollar per Square Foot Trends

Selected Year-over-Year Comparisons
San Francisco House & Condo Markets 

Each data point reflects 3-months-rolling market activity of the year specified, i.e. the November statistic reflects September, October & November sales as reported to MLS. These are auto-updating charts, changing with the passing of each month, but will always reflect the most recent 3-month period, comparing it to the same period in the previous 2 years. 

Gold columns reflect SF house sales; Purple columns reflect SF condo sales 

Median Sales Prices 


Average Dollar per Square Foot on Sale 


Sales Volume: Rolling 3-Month Period 


Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) 

The lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared
to the supply of listings available to purchase 


Average Days on Market 


Median Percentage of Sales Price to Final List Price - Overbidding 



November 2017 Market Report 

San Francisco Monthly Median Home Price Trends

The October 2017 median house sales price in San Francisco surged over $100,000 above the previous peak in May to hit a new high at $1,588,000 (sales reported by 11/5/17). A major factor was that October was also a record-breaking month for luxury house sales, and more sales of expensive homes pull up the median price. The median condo sales price, at $1,180,000, was a tad below the recent peak hit in August, and luxury condo sales reported to MLS were well below their peak sales volume reached this past June. The luxury market is covered further down in this report. 

We prefer measuring median price trends by periods longer than 1 month (which are prone to fluctuate considerably without great meaningfulness), and the updated chart at the top of this webpage illustrates rolling 3-month median price trends for houses and condos, and 6-month rolling median prices for TICs. Remember that median price changes are not perfect measurements of changes in fair market value. 

S&P Case-Shiller Index Measurement of Appreciation 

And this chart below based on CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller data compares the appreciation of the more expensive Bay Area home markets (blue line) - such as most of SF, Marin, San Mateo and Diablo Valley - to the overall national trend (green line), going back to 1987. It is interesting to see where our local appreciation rates have diverged from national rates: The divergence since 2012 has been particularly striking. 

Note that the numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 price of 100. So, the Bay Area reading of 238 means that home prices here have appreciated, according to Case-Shiller, by 138% since January 2000. National home prices appreciated by 95% over the period. 

San Francisco vs National Home Price Appreciation


San Francisco Neighborhood & Realtor District Map 

San Francisco Neighborhood & District Map

San Francisco Market Overviews 

SF House, Condo & TIC Sales by Realtor District

Some districts are dominated by house sales and others by condo sales. The most balanced is the greater Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district with almost equal numbers of both. Condo sales now outnumber house sales in the city, a trend which will continue to accelerate with new construction. Looking at the horizontal columns below, the gray portion represents house sales, the teal, condo sales, and the green, TIC sales.

San Francisco House & Condo Sales by District

SF Home Sales by Price Segment

Home sales under $1m are dwindling, and 70% of those are condos or TICs.
The highest number of sales is now in the $1m to $1.5m price segment. 

San Francisco Home Sales by Price Segment

Sales by Property Type & Bedroom Count

Compared to other Bay Area markets, SF has more small, 2-bedroom houses and fewer big, 5+ BR, house sales - and far more condo sales at much higher prices than in other counties. By far the most prevalent SF home sale now is a 2-bedroom condo.

San Francisco Average Sales Prices by Bedroom Count

Link to Chart: New Listings Trends since 2007 

Link to Chart: Unit Sales Trends since 2007


San Francisco Luxury Homes Market 

As mentioned before, luxury house sales hit a new high in October 2017: For some reason, in recent years, October has become the biggest month for very expensive house sales. This is not the case for luxury condos, which typically peak in spring. Looking at broader trends in the second chart below, the luxury home market grew dramatically from 2012 through 2015, cooled significantly in 2016 (especially the luxury condo segment), and then surged back in 2017 to hit new highs. But then everything seems to be surging higher nowadays, from stock markets to home and iPhone prices. 

Luxury house sales in October were concentrated, highest to lowest numbers, in the Pacific Heights-Marina district (D7), the Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district (D5), and the Lake Street-Sea Cliff district (D1). These 3 districts contained about 80% of sales. Other luxury house sales were scattered singly around the city: Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Inner Sunset, Potrero Hill, Mission, Bernal Heights, Hayes Valley and Lower Pacific Heights. The 3 districts that dominated luxury condo sales, with 9 to 11 sales each, were the Russian & Nob Hills district (D8), Pacific Heights-Marina (D7), and the South Beach-Mission district (D9). There were also a handful of sales in Noe-Eureka Valley (D5), and a couple in Lake Street-Richmond (D1). (Sales reported by 11/5/17.) 

San Francisco Luxury House Sales by Month

Link to Chart: Luxury Condo Sales by Month

San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Trends


Median Home Price Trends by Neighborhood
2005 to Present 

Following are 2 charts on houses and one on condos illustrating home price appreciation trends over the past 12 years in selected neighborhoods. We generally picked neighborhoods with greater quantities of sales, but please contact us if you would like information on one not included below. (The highest priced house neighborhoods like Pacific and Presidio Heights - with median prices in the $6m range - have relatively few sales and an enormous range in sales prices, which has a tendency to make the trend lines jump up and down somewhat erratically.)

Neighborhoods with current median house prices under $1.5m have generally
seen smooth, consistent appreciation since the recovery began in 2012. 

San Francisco Neighborhood More Affordable Median House Price Trends

Neighborhoods with current median house prices of $1.5m to $3m:
Some of these saw median price dips in 2016, but recovered in 2017 

San Francisco Median House Price Trends over $1,500,000

Two-Bedroom Condos - Median Sales Price Trends:
Some SF condo markets saw significant dips in 2016, but recovered in 2017 

On the chart below, South Beach would ideally be divided into two distinct neighborhoods, with condos on lower floors of highrises in the less expensive one, and condos on higher floors in the more expensive one. Since that is not easily possible, the median price below is a blend of both. To a large degree, all median sales prices are derived from a blend of a wide range of individual sales, but the highrise dynamic is concentrated in the greater South Beach area.

San Francisco Median 2-bedroom Condo Price Trends


SF Neighborhoods & Property Types: Hottest to Coolest Markets 

The following charts looks at the various districts of the city by a number of standard statistical measures of supply and demand, or market heat. As has been the case for the last couple years, generally speaking, the greatest pressure of buyer demand has continued to be focused on the more affordable house neighborhoods (affordable by SF standards), such as most of those in the Sunset/Parkside District. 

Note: These are general statistics and small differences between districts or market segments are not particularly significant. .

Overbidding Asking Prices

First houses and then condos: The higher the %, the hotter the market.
Some of these percentages are staggeringly high. 

San Francisco Neighborhood Overbidding House List Prices

Overbidding in the condo market is not quite as frantic as with houses. 

San Francisco Neighborhood Overbidding Condo Prices

Months Supply of Inventory & Average Days on Market

First houses, then condos: The lower the statistics, the hotter the market. 

San Francisco Houses - Months Supply of Inventory and Days on Market

San Francisco Inventory and Days on Market - Condos


Hottest to Coolest by Price Segment & Property Type 

To a large degree, what is seen below dovetails with the analysis by district above: More affordable home segments are strongest, and the affordable house segment in particular is the most feverish of all. The ultra-luxury condo market is, by far, the softest segment: Part of this is certainly competition from new, luxury condo projects coming on market.

San Francisco Sales Prices to List Prices

San Francisco Market Absorption Rate

San Francisco MSI by Price Range

------------------------------------------------------------  Seasonality & the SF Homes Market Advantages to buying during the mid-November to mid-January slowdown  Just before Thanksgiving the market begins to rapidly subside until starting to revive about 7-8 weeks later. Many buyers simply check out during this period, but there are good reasons for staying engaged - mainly the possibility of getting a much better deal. Starting in October and extending into November, sellers begin reducing prices in large numbers as they try to capture the attention of disappearing buyers: Buyers should treat these as brand new listingsand take a new look. Competition between buyers drops dramatically during the mid-winter period, and since competitive bidding is the biggest single factor behind higher prices, its decline can mean significant savings. Fewer buyers also means that sellers are often more willing to negotiate: Throw offers in at whatever price you feel is right and see where they go. It is true that the number of new listings coming on markets plunges, but there are still hundreds of listings to consider for those willing to stay in the game.  The red lines in the charts below illustrate these big, seasonal market shifts. Price Reductions Soar in October/November  San Francisco Home Price Reductions Overbidding Declines  San Francisco Overbidding Seasonality San Francisco Seasonality Selling over List Price Average Days on Market Increases Making sellers more willing to negotiate  San Francisco Market Seasonality - Days on Market Inventory Drops But hundreds of listings remain on market  San Francisco Seasonality and Active Listings on Market Median Home Prices Drop due to a number of factors, including a reduction in demand  San Francisco Seasonality and Median home prices All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  Link to SF Neighborhood Home Price Tables  Link to our SF luxury house market update  Link to our SF luxury condo market update  Link to our apartment building market report  Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available. ------------------------------------------------------------  Mortgage Interest Rates  Interest rates are somewhat above their all-time lows, but still very, very low by historic standards. This is of enormous importance to buyers financing their home purchases. Short-Term Rate Trends  Short-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends Long-Term Trends  Long-Term Mortgage Interest Rate Trends ------------------------------------------------------------ It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.  These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.  © 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group Extremely Low Inventory + Continuing Strong Demand =  High-Pressure Q3 San Francisco Real Estate Market October 2017, Q3 Review  ------------------------------------------------------------ Year-over-year, a low inventory homes market dropped even lower, while buyer demand increased to keep the pot boiling in San Francisco through the third quarter, when activity typically cools down between the spring and autumn selling seasons. Since closed sales in each month mostly reflect the market heat in the previous month, when the offers are actually negotiated, we will not have hard data on September until October sales data becomes available in November. One thing we do know is that the number of new listings coming on market in September, which is usually the month of the year with the highest number of new listings, is down considerably from last year - but the number of listings accepting offers increased: Less inventory, more demand.  Q3 SF Median Home Sales Price Changes since 2005  San Francisco Q3 Median Home Price Trends The Q3 SF median house sales price was $1,365,000 and the median SF condo sales price was $1,175,000, considerable year-over-year increases over Q3 2016 prices: 7% and 11% respectively. It is not unusual for median prices to drop from Q2 to Q3, to a large degree due to the seasonal decline in luxury home sales, as well as the typical overall market cooling during the summer, and this occurred for houses, which dropped $75,000 from Q2, similar to drops in previous years. But condos bucked this trend and increased $40,000 quarter to quarter. (Q2 to Q3 change is not illustrated on this chart.) However, while the house inventory in the city has been relatively unchanged for 60+ years, tens of thousands of new condos have come into the market over recent decades, which means that comparing the basket of sales in different periods is not always apples to apples. ------------------------------------------------------------  Q3 San Francisco Market Trends since 2005 Comparing Q3 statistics for the past 12 years  Q3 New Listings Coming on Market since 2005  New listings hitting the market dropped appreciably year-over-year, doing no favors for buyers competing for homes in Q3 overall, and in September specifically. San Francisco Q3 New Home Listings on Market Months Supply of Inventory (MSI), Q3 since 2005  MSI compares demand to supply in one statistic: The lower the MSI, the higher the demand vs. the number of listings available to purchase. The MSI for the SF house market in Q3 2017 was as low as in any Q3 during the past 12 years. For San Francisco condos, the MSI was somewhat higher, but still historically low (but does not include the substantial inventory of new-project condo listings, not listed in MLS). Both are down significantly from Q3 of 2016: 2016 was a cooler market between two very hot markets in 2015 and 2017. San Francisco Q3 Months Supply of Inventory Average Days on Market, Q3 since 2005  San Francisco Q3 Days on Market ------------------------------------------------------------  Overbidding List Prices since December 2015  In the last 6 years, overbidding percentages have usually declined from the Q2 spring selling season to the quieter Q3 summer market. But not this year: This year overbidding increased in July and September to their highest points since mid-2015. San Francisco Overbidding Home Prices ------------------------------------------------------------  Context Economic Factors to Bay Area Housing Markets  We recently completed a report placing the Bay Area housing market within the context of a wide variety of othereconomic and demographic dynamics, such as population growth, employment and hiring, the stock and the IPO markets, consumer confidence, interest rates, commercial lease rates, , aging homeowners (who sell less frequently), housing affordability and new housing construction. Because conditions, trends and cycles seen among them are, more often than not, closely interrelated. The full report is online here: Economic Context Report.  ------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Luxury House & Condo Markets  In September, we issued 2 detailed reports on the San Francisco luxury house market, and the SF luxury condo, co-op and TIC market. Above are 2 of many updated analyses. The complete reports can be found here:  Link to our SF luxury house market update  Link to our SF luxury condo and co-op market update  ------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Investment Property Market  After dropping in 2016, SF residential rents appear to be making a small recovery, though the data is still very short-term, and there are thousands of new apartments in the new construction pipeline in the city. This chart is from our latest report on the San Francisco, Alameda and Marin multi-unit residential markets:  Link to our apartment building market report  ------------------------------------------------------------  Trends in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods  We have dozens of analyses of appreciation trends within specific SF neighborhoods and districts, and below is a sampling, some by median sales price and others by average dollar per square foot value. Some city neighborhoods plateaued or saw declines in values in 2016, when segments of the market distinctly cooled: Generally speaking, these were more expensive home segments, and condo markets most impacted by new-project condos coming on market with major new supply. Affordable house markets largely continued to appreciate in 2016. In 2017 to date, most areas of the city have experienced further appreciation.  Changes in these statistics do not necessarily correspond exactly to changes in fair market value, as they can be affected by a variety of factors. Neighborhoods with relatively few sales and broader ranges in individual sales prices are most prone to fluctuations unrelated to changes in fair market value. Longer-term trends are always more meaningful than shorter term. If you are interested in a neighborhood not included below, please let us know.  Please let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.  SF neighborhood home price tables: Median Sales Prices by Bedroom Count  All our real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  Over the past 12 months, Paragon sold more San Francisco residential and multi-unit residential real estate than any other brokerage. (Dollar volume sales reported to MLS per Broker Metrics.)  ------------------------------------------------------------ It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.  These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.  © 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group Will the Fall Market Stay Hot or Shift Cooler? September 2017 Report  ------------------------------------------------------------ Generally speaking, late summer market dynamics (or, for that matter, during the mid-winter doldrums) are not of great significance and do not tell us much about where the market is heading. September, however, is usually the single month with the greatest number of new listings hitting the market in San Francisco, and that surge fuels sales through mid-November, when activity begins to plunge. The coming two months will be the next major indicator: Will the SF market continue to maintain the intense high-demand, low-supply heat of this past spring, or will it cool? While the entire market is affected by seasonality, the luxury home segment is fiercely so, and the next couple months will be the peak selling period for high-end homes until spring 2018 rolls around.  City-Wide Home Appreciation Trends since 2005 Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot Values  San Francisco Median Home Sales Price Trends San Francisco Average Dollar per Square Foot Trends ------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Neighborhood Appreciation Rates 2011 to 2017 YTD, Median Sales Price Change  Median sales prices are not perfect indicators of changes in values for specific homes: They can be and often are affected by factors other than changes in fair market value, and shorter-term anomalies are not uncommon. What is certainly true is that every part of the city has seen tremendous appreciation since the recovery began in 2012, however the percentages on the charts below should be considered very approximate indications of the scale of change.  These charts delineate 2011 and 2017 YTD median sales prices by neighborhood, as well as the percentage change between the two. The 2 charts on house appreciation are followed by 2 on condo appreciation. If you wish information on a neighborhood not included in the charts below, please let us know.  SF HOUSE Median Sales Price Appreciation Rates  SF Neighborhood House Price Appreciation NOTE: A perfect example of how median price changes can misrepresent changes in fair market value can be seen above: Typically, Noe Valley and Eureka Valley (Castro) have very similar median house prices, but in 2017 YTD, the Eureka Valley median price unexpectedly jumped by an astonishing $500,000 (23%), putting it far above Noe, and giving it a much higher overall appreciation rate. However, the average size of houses sold in Eureka Valley so far in 2017 suddenly jumped by 22% from 2016: That is, its houses didn’t just suddenly and inexplicably have a tremendous jump in value: the average size of homes sold changed, probably temporarily. Monthly median price changes in particular, trumpeted everywhere in the media as vitally important, are often unreliable due to seasonality and the small size of the data set.  SF Neighborhood Home Price Appreciation SF CONDO Median Sales Price Appreciation Rates  Thousands of newly constructed condos, which typically sell for higher prices than resale condos, have hit the market in recent years, which means year-over-year comparisons are not always apples to apples. Generally speaking, comparable-condo appreciation rates have been well below house appreciation rates since 2015, because of the difference in the supply available to purchase. San Francisco Neighborhood Condo Price Appreciation SF Neighborhood Condo Price Appreciation All our real estate market analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports ------------------------------------------------------------  The September Rush of New Listings  General Market  San Francisco New Listings Luxury Home Market  For some reason, September 2016 saw a stupendous rush of luxury home listings coming on market, which among other effects led to the highest monthly number of luxury house sales ever in October 2016. (As an aside, luxury condo and co-op sales hit their highest sales volume this past June.) San Francisco New Luxury Home Listings ------------------------------------------------------------  Long-term Trends in Listing Inventory  A declining number of homes being listed for sale adds significant pressure to the market.  SF New Home Listing Trends San Francisco Listing Inventory Trends ------------------------------------------------------------  Where to Look in Your Price Range  In August, we updated our complete series of charts delineating where one is most likely to find a home in any specific price range. Below are 2 of the charts, and the entire series can be found here: SF Neighborhood AffordabilitySan Francisco Condo Prices by Neighborhood San Francisco House Prices by Neighborhood ------------------------------------------------------------  National Housing Affordability  This next chart illustrates home affordability for selected metro areas across the country as calculated by the National Association of Realtors. The 7 Bay Area counties, in our 2 metro areas, are the least affordable in the nation - not the happiest of distinctions, except for those planning to sell and move out of the area.  U.S. Metro Area Housing Affordability San Francisco, California & the United States  The appreciation of home prices in San Francisco since 2011 has out-performed overall state and national markets by a substantial margin. San Francisco, California and US Home Price Trends ------------------------------------------------------------  County House Markets  Since San Francisco is considered the big city in the Bay Area (though San Jose is actually larger), it seems counter-intuitive that its house market is one of the smallest, but this is a major part of its ruling dynamic: Very little supply compared to intense demand. Owners in the city (and the nation) are getting older, and selling their houses ever more infrequently. And virtually no new houses are being built within SF itself. SF Bay Area House Markets Condo sales significantly outnumber house sales in SF, and the supply of condos available to purchase has surged with new project construction. This has made that market segment somewhat less heated; condo owners also tend to sell more frequently than house owners. However, the condo market in the city is much more expensive than in other counties.  Additional Chart: Bay Area Condo Markets ------------------------------------------------------------  Ultra-Luxury House Sales in San Francisco Houses Selling for $5 Million & Above  A quick look at the very highest end of the SF market. Though other districts, such as the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, have increasingly surged into the luxury home segment, when it comes to the realm of the really big, most expensive houses, the district comprised of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina dominates with 75% of sales. House sales there can exceed $30m, though that is still very rare. Most expensive houses in San Francisco ------------------------------------------------------------  Bay Area Home Price Appreciation per the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index  Earlier in this report, it was mentioned that median price changes can sometimes be unreliable as indicators of actual appreciation. However, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures appreciation using its own special algorithm tracking resales of the same home, and it does not use median sales prices. This first chart below, based on Case-Shiller, is a simplified, smoothed-out look at the up and down cycles over the past 33 years in the higher end of the Bay Area real estate market, which predominates in most of the city, Marin, San Mateo and areas like Piedmont, Diablo Valley and Lamorinda. Because it covers 5 counties, it merges the differences between their separate markets into a single trend line. San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Cycles This second Case-Shiller chart illustrates how homes in different price segments around the Bay Area have recently been appreciating at considerably different rates. C-S divides all the Bay Area house sales into thirds by number of sales: low-, mid- and high-price. As illustrated in the lower green line, the higher-priced segment went flat in appreciation in 2016, but then jumped back to life in 2017. The most affordable price segment (top blue line) has been experiencing the highest pressure of buyer demand and competitive bidding, and since April 2016, has out-appreciated the most expensive segment, 12.4% to 4.3%, i.e. almost triple the rate of increase. The middle price segment (gold line) has been in between, appreciating by 7.8%.  These dynamics are generally true within each county, as buyers, somewhat desperately, search for homes they can still afford, in the area they wish to live.  The numbers on this chart all refer to a January 2000 home price of 100. Thus 262 signifies a price 162% higher than in 2000. Case-Shiller SF Home Price Trends by Price Tier ------------------------------------------------------------  Months Supply of Inventory (MSI)  The lower the months supply of inventory, the higher the demand as compared to the supply of homes available to purchase, i.e. lower MSI equals a hotter market. The entire Bay Area has been experiencing very, very low MSI figures recently, with San Mateo at rock bottom. (Its median house sales price has just recently been exceeding the median price in the city.) Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, generally offering considerably more affordable home prices than Silicon Valley, San Francisco and Marin are also at extreme lows.  Within SF itself, the MSI for houses alone, and especially in the more affordable neighborhoods, is substantially lower than the MSI for condos, though both have been very low since spring began.  SF Bay Area Months Supply of Inventory

------------------------------------------------------------  Long-term San Francisco Market Statistics  Days on Market San Francisco Average Days on MarketMonths Supply of Inventory San Francisco Months Supply of Inventory------------------------------------------------------------  Mortgage Interest Rates  Since the election, interest rates have seen a wild ride, first up and then down. As of the end of August, rates hit their lowest point so far in 2017, a significant financial advantage for buyers.Mortgage Interest Rate TrendsPlease let us know if you have questions or we can be of assistance in any other way. Information on neighborhoods not included in this report is readily available.  All our many Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  Over the past 12 months, Paragon sold more San Francisco residential and multi-unit residential real estate than any other brokerage. (Sales reported to MLS per Broker Metrics.)  ------------------------------------------------------------ It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.  These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.  © 2017 Paragon Real Estate Group San Francisco Real Estate: The Paragon Mid-Year Report Highest median home prices ever; a new peak in SF luxury home sales; the huge, new-construction pipeline; SF neighborhood home prices and trends; San Francisco & Bay Area home price maps  July 2017  ------------------------------------------------------------ A Very Hot Spring  SF Median Sales Price Appreciation by Quarter since 2012 After hitting new monthly highs in May, San Francisco houses and condos hit new quarterly peaks in Q2 2017. However, median house price appreciation, $100,000 above its previous high, has been more dramatic over the past 2 years than median condo price appreciation, which has mostly plateaued due to the surge in new-project condos coming on market. As illustrated above, it is not unusual for median prices to peak for the year in Q2, and a significant part of this dynamic, besides the competitive heat of the market in springtime, is the large jump in high-end home sales seen at this time of year. More expensive home sales closed in Q2 than in any quarter in the past. Which leads to our next chart: San Francisco Luxury Homes Sales by Month since 2014 Sales of luxury condos surged dramatically this spring to hit their highest number ever in June on a monthly basis, and in Q2 on a quarterly basis. Luxury house sales of $3m+ also barely exceeded the previous quarterly high in sales, but its component months were well below earlier monthly peaks. Note that condo figures do not include new luxury condo sales unreported to MLS.  Our complete report: The San Francisco Luxury Home Market  ------------------------------------------------------------    Two new August 2017 reports: Best SF Neighborhoods for Homes in in Your Price Range  SF Bay Area Real Estate Markets & Demographics  ------------------------------------------------------------ Building Cranes Everywhere  Approximately 64,000 housing units, 31 million sq.ft. of commercial space & 25 hotels with 4685 rooms are now in the SF new construction pipeline -  with 5700 units, 10 million sq.ft. and 5 hotels currently under construction. In the above chart on new housing construction, the main issue for the SF residential sales market is new condo construction and its effect on the supply and demand dynamic. Over 5000 new condos have been built in the past 4 to 5 years, with another 2000 expected to hit the market in the next 2 or 3. This surge of supply has been a substantial factor in the overall plateauing of condo median sales prices in the city since 2015, and some declines in those neighborhoods where new construction has been concentrated. However, it is true that new construction has been shifting much more toward building rental housing than condos intended for sale, which should help relieve pressure on condo prices and continue to exert downward pressure on rents. The rental scenario is discussed further at the end of this report. ------------------------------------------------------------  Home Price Maps  We have just updated our median home price maps for the entire Bay Area by city, for San Francisco by neighborhood, and then specifically for the Marin, Lamorinda & Diablo Valley, and Wine Country markets. To access them, click on the map image below and then roll your cursor over the maps on the webpage. ------------------------------------------------------------  SF Neighborhood Home Prices & Trends House & Condo Prices by Bedroom Count Our full collection of home price tables: Median Sales Prices by Bedroom Count ------------------------------------------------------------  Appreciation Trends since 2005 for Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods ------------------------------------------------------------  Sales by Price Segment within Neighborhoods  Median sales prices typically disguise a wide range of prices in the underlying individual home sales, which is what these charts illustrate.Dozens more neighborhood analyses can be found here: San Francisco Neighborhood Prices & Trends. ------------------------------------------------------------  Bay Area Rent Trends  This is from our mid-year report on the multi-unit residential market, which can be found in its entirety here: Bay Area Apartment Market Report San Francisco still has the highest rents in the nation (the light blue columns in the chart above), exceeding even Manhattan (in second place, delineated by the dark blue line), but they have been dropping since recent peaks in late 2015/early 2016. There are two main factors: 1) per Ted Egan, the chief economist of the City of San Francisco, high-tech hiring has been slowing since 2016, and 2) over 8000 new rental units have been built in the past 5 years, with at least 10,000 more expected to hit the market in the next 5. Generally speaking, rents around the Bay Area have either declined, in what had been the hottest markets, or seen their appreciation rates significantly slow, over the past year or so.  All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  ------------------------------------------------------------ Crazy Hot Spring Market - Again As Buyers Compete for an Inadequate Supply of Home Listings,  San Francisco Median House Sales Price Soars to $1,500,000 in May June 2017 Report Home price appreciation, overbidding asking prices, supply and demand  dynamics, the SF luxury home market & new housing construction  ------------------------------------------------------------ Three Views of SF Median Sales Price Appreciation  Monthly House & Condo Median Sales Prices since 2012 We are not that enthusiastic about using monthly median prices, because San Francisco does not have that many sales in any given month (400-550), divided among 4 property types in 70-odd neighborhoods with different values. Monthly data can also be affected by short-term events, such as bad weather, a spike in interest rates, a new-condo project closing many sales, or a sudden political or economic event. All those factors mean that monthly prices can fluctuate dramatically without great meaningfulness as to changes in fair market value.  However, that being said, the spring market 2017 definitely became feverish and in May, the SF median house sales price jumped to $1,500,000, its highest point ever, about $100,000 (7%) above its previous monthly peak. The SF median condo sales price also hit a new peak at $1,200,000, $20,000 (1.7%) above its previous high. Note that it is not unusual for median sales price to spike in spring and then decline thereafter as the market starts to cool for summer (i.e. spring median prices do not immediately become the new normal). Other counties around the Bay Area also hit new peak median house sales prices in either April or May: $1.49m in San Mateo, $1.35m in Marin, $1.28m in Diablo Valley/Lamorinda, and $875,000 in Alameda.  Year-over-Year 3-Month Median Sales Prices March-May, since 2005 Comparing March through May sales year-over-year, houses and condos also hit new peaks: the SF median house price increased 4.6% from the same period in 2016, and the SF median condo price increased 4.5%.  Rolling 3-Month Median Sales Prices since 2005 In both this chart and the one above it, one sees the plateauing of condo median prices in 2015-2016. The condo market cooled much more than the house market in 2016, mostly due to an influx of new construction condos coming on market just as high-tech hiring slowed. ------------------------------------------------------------  Comparing Us and Them San Francisco & National Appreciation Trends since 1987 through March 2017  The numbers on the Case-Shiller chart below all relate to a home price of 100 in January 2000: 50 denotes a home price 50% below then; 230 signifies a price 130% above January 2000. This chart compares the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area high-price-tier market (which reflects the city of San Francisco best) in the blue line and the United States market in the green line. It goes through March 2017, which is the last report Case-Shiller has released as of early June, so it will not reflect the appreciation of April and May.  The appreciation trend lines are really quite similar except for 3 periods: Right after the 1989 earthquake, the rise and crash of the dotcom bubble, and the recent high-tech boom in the Bay Area. Looking beyond the difference in appreciation rates since 2012, 70% vs. 40%, the difference in dollar appreciation in median house prices over the 5 years is enormous: over $500,000 for SF vs. $70,000 for the U.S.  Note on the chart that after a divergence, it is not unusual for the trend lines to converge once again. ------------------------------------------------------------  Market Heat by San Francisco District  Overbidding House List Prices  The house market is hotter than the condo market, and the more affordable house market (affordable by San Francisco standards) has turned into a feeding frenzy this spring. By the measure of overbidding, the Sunset, Parkside and Golden Gate Heights district remains the hottest the city, as it was when we last measured in October 2016. These are stupendous median percentages over house asking prices. In the condo, co-op and TIC market, overbidding is at lower percentages, generally running in the 5-11% range, but going as low as 0% in the South Beach/SoMa district with its big influx of new construction inventory.------------------------------------------------------------  Percentage of Sales Selling for Over List Price  The percentage of house sales under $3m that sold during the past 3 months for OVER asking price was a whopping 81%. That is feverish. Other market segments were also strong, but not quite as hot as that for non-luxury houses.------------------------------------------------------------  4 Measures of Supply & Demand Dynamics January 2007 - May 2017  In each of the following charts, there are distinct changes reflecting 1) the market recession after the 2007 peak, 2) the 2012-2015 recovery, 3) some cooling in the market in 2016, and 4) the market heating up again in spring 2017. Note the differences in some of the trends lines between the house and condo market. San Francisco is the only county in the Bay Area where the market is dominated by condo listings: Thousands of new condos have been built since 2000 with many more in planning. New Listings: The decline in the frequency of owners putting their homes on the market has played a critical role in pressurizing the markets in SF and, indeed, around the country.  Active Listings: The number of active listings on the market at any given time is determined by the number of sellers putting their homes on the market and the intensity of buyer demand jumping on those new listings (and taking them off the market).Months Supply of Inventory (MSI) measures the interplay of supply and demand: The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings available to purchase.Average Days on Market: When demand increases, especially against a declining inventory, competitiveness between buyers increases and, typically, average days on market decline.------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Luxury Home Market  Here are 7 charts from the more than 20 new analyses we have posted to our luxury report, which can be found in its entirety here: San Francisco Luxury Home Market  The luxury home market in the city has mostly bounced back from the cooling it experienced late-2015 through 2016, but, generally speaking, is still not quite as strong as it was in spring 2015. The first chart below breaks out luxury home sales by dollar per square foot values. The 3 MLS sales for over $3000 per square foot in the past year were all in the new Pacific Heights luxury condo project, The Pacific. San Francisco Luxury House Sales  House sales of $3m+ are concentrated mostly in 2 districts: The $3m to $5m market is dominated by the greater Noe, Eureka & Cole Valleys district; the $5m+ market is dominated by the Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and Marina district. On a dollar per square foot basis, the best values are in the St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill area, an area of large, gracious houses on larger than usual lots. The majority of luxury houses in San Francisco were built  before 1920; the great majority before 1940. San Francisco Luxury Condo, Co-op & TIC Sales  May 2017 saw the second highest monthly number of luxury condo sales ever, just below the number of sales in March 2015.  The biggest change in the luxury home market has been the dramatic drop, almost 50% year over year, in luxury condo sales reported to MLS in the greater South Beach/ SoMa/ Yerba Buena district, even as listing inventory there has hit new highs. This is the area where large, very expensive, high-rise projects continue to come on market, and, to some degree, they may be cannibalizing MLS sales in the resale market. Foreign buyers have played a significant role here in recent years and it is possible (we do not have hard data) that this demand has declined due to political issues here and in China. This is also where the unfortunate issues at the Millennium Tower (slight sinking and tilting; multiple lawsuits) are being extensively reported upon. Even though the construction issues at the Millennium are unique to itself, it may be that the storm of negative publicity is making affluent buyers more cautious about buying in the surrounding area. If so, that effect will presumably wear off in time, which may make this a good time to buy while inventory is high.  For the time being, the luxury condo market has shifted its center back to older, northern, highly affluent neighborhoods like Pacific Heights and Russian Hill. ------------------------------------------------------------  New Housing Construction and the San Francisco Business Times performed excellent analyses recently of the state and pipeline of new housing construction in San Francisco, which we have illustrated in the two charts below. (Unfortunately, the annual Planning Department Housing Inventory Report, which usually comes out in May or June, has been delayed, probably until August or later.)All our Bay Area real estate analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  ------------------------------------------------------------ It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific, tailored, comparative market analysis. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.  These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.  © 2017 Paragon Real Estate GroupA Second Wind for San Francisco Real Estate? The Market Shifts Again after Cooling in 2016 May 2017 Report ------------------------------------------------------------  Since the year began, preliminary data has been trickling in regarding the Bay Area and city economy, and the commercial and residential real estate markets in particular, that appears to indicate that things may be heating upagain after clearly cooling in late 2015 and 2016 (subsequent to the increasingly torrid conditions in the 4 years prior). It is far too early to come to any definitive conclusions regarding the long-term significance of recent local or national shifts: Some of the data is not always consistent with such a conclusion; some of the data may indicate over-exuberance in the markets. Though always hesitant to make too much of short-term trends, we will take a look at a few angles on current developments. A recent article in the San Francisco Business Times (of similar title) describes what is going on in commercial real estate, while this report will primarily focus on the SF residential market.  Percentage of Home Listings Accepting Offers  by Property Type & Price Segment  Note: 12-month median sales prices in San Francisco are currently approximately $1,350,000 for houses and $1,100,000 for condos One of the classic statistics of supply and demand is percentage-of-listings-accepting-offers: The higher the percentage, the hotter the market. In the chart above, we assessed San Francisco by property type and price segment, comparing this past April to the same months of 2015 and 2016. Note that spring 2015 was considered a particularly feverish market characterized by very high demand and very low inventory. Most of the segments saw a considerable cooling from April 2015 to April 2016. However, almost all the segments bounced back in April 2017, and, indeed, the lower price segments performed significantly better than 2 years ago.  Other standard measures of market heat such as average-days-on-market, and months-supply-of-inventory saw similar changes (approaching all-time lows), though we did not chart them for this report. On the ground, increased buyer competition for an inadequate supply of houses under $2 million and condos under $1.5 million, dovetails with the statistics. We have also heard that new-project condo sales have seen a considerable surge in buyer demand, but we cannot verify that.  It will be interesting to see if these dynamics continue through Q2, usually the most active selling season of the year, and, if so, how they will affect median sales prices: As seen in the second chart below, so far, there has been no appreciable year-over-year change. However, most listings accepting offers in April will not close sale until May, which will then be reflected in median sales price data available in June.

------------------------------------------------------------  Year-over-Year SF Median Sales Price Comparison Looking at 3-month rolling median sales prices in the chart above, comparing the February through April periods of 2015, 2016 and 2017, the SF median house price is relatively flat since last year, and the median condo price is relatively flat since 2015, after both saw rapid appreciation rates in the previous years. (At this point, the recent, minor percentage changes comparing 3-month periods should not be considered significant.) The flattening in condo median price for the additional year reflects the earlier and greater cooling that occurred in that market segment. ------------------------------------------------------------  Comparative Neighborhood Values & Appreciation Trends  One of our readers suggested that it would be interesting to see multiple San Francisco neighborhoods illustrated on a single chart to compare home prices and appreciation rates. We got a little carried away and created more than 2 dozen graphs, of which 6 are below.  The extremely affluent Presidio Heights neighborhood has the largest houses and highest prices in the city, with next door Pacific Heights right behind. All the charts in this series are here: San Francisco Neighborhood Comparisons, which also includes an SF neighborhood map.  ------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Luxury Home Pricing It has been clear over the past 2 years that the market for higher priced homes has cooled more than that for less expensive homes, and this is reflected in the first chart of this report. One of the big issues is that many luxury home sellers have simply been asking for more money than buyers are willing to pay: This is illustrated in the chart above which compares median sales prices with median asking prices, and then with the median prices of expired listings that were ultimately pulled from the market without selling. ------------------------------------------------------------  Various Economic Indicators  Bay Area Employment & Unemployment Rates  The lowest unemployment rates in 15 years, but the picture in hiring and new high-tech hiring in particular, is a bit unclear with recent shifts up and down. S&P 500 Stock Index  Maybe some irrational exuberance at play since the election? Housing Affordability  Perhaps the biggest social, economic and political issue in the Bay Area right now: Remaining close to all-time lows San Francisco, Alameda & Marin Rents  Rents in all 3 counties ticked back up in Q1 after recent declines, but too much  should not be made of this until substantiated over a longer term than 1 quarter Mortgage Interest Rates  Up after the election, down since the new year began, rates remain extremely low by historical standards A growing factor in the inadequacy of listings on the market available to purchase, which adds competitive pressure on prices as buyers compete for very limited supply, is the fact that owners are simply moving much less often than historical norms. There was a very good overview of the pertinent issues to this profound demographic change in the May 14, 2017 New York Times.  ------------------------------------------------------------  S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index  Another angle on Bay Area home price appreciation trends  According to Case-Shiller, which divides sales into 3 price tiers and measures Bay Area home price appreciation using its own proprietary algorithm (instead of median sales prices): In the period from April 2016 through February 2017 (its most recent report), less expensive homes appreciated by 7% during the period; mid-priced homes appreciated by 3%; and high-priced homes remained flat over the 11 months. Over the last year or two, the greatest pressure of buyer demand in the Bay Area has shifted to the more affordable home segment. Again, the first chart in this report highlights this dynamic in San Francisco.  C-S numbers all refer to a January 2000 home price set at 100. Thus, a reading of 249 signifies a price 149% over than of January 2000. Our full article on market cycles: 30+ Years of San Francisco Real Estate Cycles  All our analyses can be found here: Paragon Market Reports  ------------------------------------------------------------ Gold, Google, Facebook & San Francisco Homes Return on Investment Rates since 2011  Penthouses, Probates, Fixer-Uppers & Panoramic Views A Survey of the SF Real Estate Market in 2016 January 2017 Report ------------------------------------------------------------ 

This first chart is a somewhat lighthearted, but we believe accurate look at how various 2011 investments would have played out through 2016. (FB is dated from its 2012 IPO.) When calculating appreciation, purchase and sale dates are critical factors, and changing those can alter the results significantly: Using 2011, the last bottom of the real estate market, as the purchase date certainly plays to the advantage of home price increases. If you bought gold or soybeans in 2011, you really should have sold them a couple years ago at the height of the commodity price boom.  Besides the appreciation percentage noted, buying a home in 2011 with all cash would have generated large, additional financial returns in the form of extremely low monthly housing costs. Buying it with 20% down supercharges the return on cash investment, and that is before adding in other advantages: Even with an 80% loan, by 2016 your monthly housing costs, with recent low interest rates and tax advantages, would be well below market rents. Then there is the huge capital gains exclusion on the sale of a primary residence, which would not apply to other investments.  More Details: Since we initially published this report, we received a number of good questions regarding our calculations. Here are more details (but feel free to skip this to scroll down to other parts of the newsletter):  2011 - $690,000 median San Francisco house sales price  2016 - $1,325,000 median sales price  For the 20% down investment return calculation:  20% downpayment + 2% closing costs = $152,000  Proceeds deducting 8% closing costs: 92% of $1,325,000 = $1,219,000, less $552,000 loan = $667,000 net proceeds. (We actually didn’t calculate the real, reduced, loan balance due on sale, which would be considerably lower, just used the original 80%, $552,000 loan amount.)  $667,000 net proceeds = 339% return on the initial $152,000 cash investment. We tried to be conservative, i.e. using high buy and sell closing cost percentages and using the original loan balance instead of what would actually be due on sale in 2016.  We also received this excellent question in response to the investment analysis:  Shouldn't the 20% down-payment housing cost calculation also include monthly interest, property tax and insurance costs over the 5 years of the investment return calculation?  Since comparing investment returns between radically different types of investments is challenging, the answer requires a somewhat complicated explanation, for those interested:  To make the comparisons between the investment returns of buying a house with a 20% down payment and buying stocks or gold as close to apples to apples as possible, first of all we had to divide the house purchase into two distinct and even unrelated parts: 1) the investment part which pertains to the cash paid, the transaction costs incurred and the net cash proceeds on sale, and 2) the ongoing cost of housing, i.e. living in the house you purchased. Because if you purchase stock or gold, you still have housing costs. So you’re buying a house as an investment and you have housing costs, or you’re buying one of the alternative investments and you have housing costs.  The only reason why we would change the investment scenario to account for ongoing housing costs (mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, home maintenance) would be if such housing costs were higher for the house buyer than they would be for a stock or gold buyer who, also needing housing, rents at market rates a house of similar size and location.  So to compare the housing costs between the buyer and the renter:  If someone bought a median priced San Francisco house in 2011, for $690,000, with an 80% loan ($552,000) at the prevailing 30-year mortgage rate of 4.5%, the monthly principal, interest, tax and insurance (PITI) cost plus $300 in monthly repair and maintenance expenses would be approximately $3925. The principal repayment portion should be stripped out because it’s not really an expense – one is paying down their loan amount and it will be recovered on sale – which brings the monthly cost down to about $3225 before income tax deductions (of interest and property taxes). Conservatively, tax savings should equal about $500, bringing the cost down to $2725 per month, which was probably about the same as the corresponding market rent, or a little bit higher. If one refinanced the loan in 2013 for 3.5%, the next cost would drop to around $2350 per month, which would basically become fixed, with small increases in property taxes and insurance, for the 30 years of the loan.  From 2014 onward, for which we have data from Zillow, the median rent for a San Francisco house ranged between $3800 and $5000, for which there are no significant tax deductions. So, in fact, the person who purchased the median priced SF house in 2011, by 2014 would be paying significantly less for their ongoing monthly cost of housing than the person who invested in stock or gold and rented the median SF house at steadily increasing market rents.  These are rough and very approximate calculations – they should not be relied upon for financial decision-making (consult your own accountant or financial planner) – but buying the median priced SF house in 2011 with 20% down would not only reap huge returns on the cash initially invested upon its sale in 2016, but the investor who lived in the house purchased would eventually have saved many thousands of additional dollars in monthly housing costs over paying market rate rents. Which would continue if the house was not sold.  As noted above, the calculation comparing home purchase to gold or Google stock purchase was meant to be somewhat light-hearted. However, it is certainly true that 2011 would have been an extraordinarily good time to buy a house in San Francisco with a long-term, fixed rate loan. Refinancing as interest rates dropped would only add to the financial benefit. That was really the only point we were trying to make. Which, of course, doesn’t guarantee where the real estate market will go in the future. Needless to say, as with any investment, if you have to sell during a down market, the effects can be quite painful. ------------------------------------------------------------  Sales of Probates, Penthouses, Fixer-Uppers, Lofts;  Homes with Views, Elevators & Wine Cellars ------------------------------------------------------------  Long-term San Francisco  Median Home Price Appreciation San Francisco median house prices continued to appreciate in 2016, albeit, at 6%, at a considerably slower rate than the previous 4 years, while condo prices basically plateaued (and indeed dipped in some neighborhoods). As with almost everything to do with real estate values, it boils down mostly to supply and demand, as discussed below. In 2016, the supply (and sales) of house listings in the city continued to dwindle, while a surge of new-construction condo projects hitting the market appreciably increased the inventory of condos available to purchase. In 2003, house sales in San Francisco were over 50% higher than in 2016. According to a study by the National Association of Realtors, the median time house owners are staying in their homes has jumped from an average of 6 years in 1987-2008 to 9 years since: Owners are getting older, not changing jobs as often, and baby boomers are aging in place as NAR put it. House owners sell their homes much less frequently than condo owners, who tend to be younger. In SF, there is also the factor of a reluctance to sell when that means facing a very challenging market for buyers. And with very low interest rates, and very high rents, some owners are renting out their houses instead of selling.  It all boils down to a continuing strong demand for houses meeting a steadily declining supply: Even with a market that cooled somewhat in 2016, competition between buyers continues to push house prices up, especially in more affordable neighborhoods. The equation is different for condos, which has become the dominant property-sales type in the city: A cooling market is meeting increased supply. There has been no crash in condo prices, but areas with the greatest quantity of new condo construction have seen small declines.  ------------------------------------------------------------ As can be seen above, two of the most affordable districts for houses, Districts 10 and 2, also provide 37% of all the house sales in the city. Generally speaking, they have continued to experience very strong buyer demand in 2016.District 9, a large district that stretches from SoMa, South Beach and Mission Bay to Potrero Hill, Dogpatch and Inner Mission, is increasingly dominating condo sales in the city. The great majority of new condo construction, especially of the largest projects, has been occurring in this district.  All our breakdowns by neighborhood and home size are here: SF Home Price Tables  Our complete collection of district analyses: SF District & Neighborhood Sales Breakdowns ------------------------------------------------------------  San Francisco Overview Market Statistics  The following classic measures of market heat all tell the same story: Coming out of the recession in 2011, the San Francisco market became increasingly frenzied through the spring of 2015. In late 2015, as housing affordability became a critical issue, and the local high-tech economy saw some cooling, and financial markets worldwide experienced increasing volatility, the SF real estate market began to cool and normalize. Buyer competition for new listings softened, overbidding declined, days-on-market increased, appreciation declined or plateaued, and so on. And the condo market cooled more than the house market due to issues discussed above.  2016 saw a reasonable adjustment to a desperately overheated market, but nothing that suggests, so far, an imminent, dramatic downturn. Indeed, by national standards, most of our current statistics still define a relatively robust market. In a recent interview, Ted Egan, chief economist of the City of San Francisco, put the odds of a new recession at 10% or less.------------------------------------------------------------  Real Estate Market Seasonality  Listing and sales activity builds from early January, the nadir of the market, into spring, typically the most active season. Accepted-offer activity provides an excellent illustration of the heat of the market during different times of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------  3 Important Economic Indicators  San Francisco & Bay Area Employment Trends  After dropping a little in the first half of 2016, SF and Bay Area employment numbers jumped back up in the second half, an encouraging sign for the local economy. Mortgage Interest Rates in 2016  Interest rates popped 22% higher since the election, though they still remain very low by any historical measure. Where they will go now is a subject of intense speculation since they are a critical component of housing affordability. The S&P 500 Stock Index since 1994  To the surprise of many, U.S. stock markets also popped after the election to their highest points ever. ------------------------------------------------------------  SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain  District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights  District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview  District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights  District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights  District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina  District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin  District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena  District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission